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The answer to the above questions rests with the outlook for the labour markets and wages. In , Irish economy seen the return of growth in employment - the only significant bright spark on otherwise bleak economic horizon. Based on the latest data we have, in 12 months through September , numbers in employment rose in all sectors in Ireland, with exception of Transport and storage, Administrative and support services, Public administration, and Health and social work. Non-agricultural employment rose by 33, and the bulk of new employment was generated in the jobs with 35 and higher average weekly paid hours.
In fact, in Q3 compared to Q3 , the number of people in employment more than 35 hours per week rose 52, This means that employment growth is now beginning to support domestic demand growth. The problem is that this support is coming off extremely low levels. Between and , number of jobs with weekly work hours in excess of 35 hours has fallen , And gains in employment so far are still fragile. At current rates of growth, it will take us some 13 years to get back to the same levels of full-time employment.
Of all sectors, only three are currently registering larger number of jobs than in period: Accommodation and food, Information and communication, and Health. And the latest Live Register figures released this week show that controlling for State Training Programmes participation, declines in the numbers on the Live Register remained rather static over the last 4 months. With employment rising off low levels the other source for growth in domestic demand can be found in earnings. And, aptly, in recent months, there has been resurgence in political chatter about the need to raise wages.
In part, these calls are driven by wages dynamics during the crisis. As of the end of September , average weekly earnings in Ireland were down across all sectors by EUR However, earnings were up significantly in Information and communication: rising EUR This is a sector with employment that is predominantly capturing foreign workers into new jobs. In turn, these workers have only tenuous connection to the domestic economy: they rarely invest in Ireland, do not save here and are more likely to spend money abroad than the long-term residents.
In almost all sectors of the economy linked more directly to Irish resident workforce, earnings are still declining. So employment might be growing, but wages are declining or stagnant. Which does not bode well for household incomes and, in return, for domestic demand growth story. More importantly, earnings deflation or stagnation must continue if the Government projections for exports growth were to materialise. The maths are further stacked up against the theory of domestic demand growth fuelled by wages rises.
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Given changes to taxes over recent years, a euro increase in wages from current levels for an average household will yield less than 50 cents in the gains in the disposable income. When juxtaposed against the non-discretionary spending, such as funding mortgages, this means that wages increases are not exactly an efficient path to growing domestic demand. Which means that at current tax rates, a 1.
This week, we have seen the publication of the research paper showing that some , households in Ireland are unable to pay their mortgages despite having regular income from employment. That is roughly 63 percent of all mortgages in arrears. Overall, these increases, suggest that just to keep up with the cost of funding our immense household debt overhang, households need to see wages increases of some 2. Unless you work in ICT, this is not on the books, given supply-demand imbalances in skills and jobs in this economy.
Which leaves us with only one sector where realities of supply and demand have little to do with pay and employment and where wages increases can be imposed by the state: the public sector. This is precisely where pressures to raise wages are currently emerging, driven by political, not economic considerations. With local and European elections approaching, Labour wing of the current Government is trying desperately to force the reversal of their slide in electoral approval ratings.
Labour's traditional support base - the Unions - are happy to oblige, in return for concessions of value to their members. Furthermore, with fiscal policy breaks still in the hands of the EU, increases in the lower skilled wages in public sector are likely to benefit incumbent employees at the expense of the newcomers. And if productivity growth in private sectors does not compensate for labour cost increases in public sector, we will be heading for new layoffs, slower jobs creation and, thus, contracting domestic demand.
Our economy is between a rock and a hard place. The only way this dilemma of wages vs exports can be resolved is if it is accompanied by a rapid reduction in household debt. Labels: Earnings , Employment , Irish jobs , Irish Whiskey , labour force , live register , unemployment , wages. Not so fast! Sunday Times, February 2. This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column from February 2, The news flow was mixed in recent days when it comes to covering Irish economy. After a massive boost of consumer confidence and a maelstrom of media spin extolling the expected rebound in Christmas season sales, December retail sector statistics came in as a disappointment.
Over the entire Q4 , core retail sales excluding motors were up just 1.
Profit margins in services sectors have shrunk once again in the third quarter and with them, non-financial services sectors activity also slumped in the five months through November One bright spot, however, was the return to growth in industrial production. Based on 5 months data through November, in the second half of industrial output was up 1. This latter bit of news highlights the potential for the sector to play a more active role in delivering long-term source of growth in Irish economy.
Over the second half of , using data through November, Irish manufacturing activity rose 3 percent in volume and 0.
The improvement in output was largely driven by the MNCs-dominated modern sectors. However, it was also supported by positive performance in domestic sectors, such as food, basic and fabricated metals, and capital and core consumer goods. All in, H2 marked a positive break in the previously negative trend across a number of manufacturing sectors. And this change was even more substantial when one takes out downward pressures exerted on the figures by the pharmaceuticals, where patents cliff continues to cut into output and revenues of major MNCs operating from Ireland.
Adding to good news, capital goods sectors growth signaled the restart in domestic and international investment cycle. And this confirmed the earlier data on capital acquisitions in the industry.
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The latest data is now starting to feed through to official forecasts. This week, the Central Bank upgraded and outlook for Irish economy. Specifically, the Central Bank is now projecting investment growth of 8. Crucially, investment in machinery and equipment, having declined 10 percent in is now forecast to rise 7 percent in The news of the quiet out-of-media-sight stabilisation in the Irish manufacturing is welcome because our exports and economy at large are still heavily dependent on industrial and manufacturing sectors activity.
This news is also positive because manufacturing sectors are responsible for high quality jobs creation and hold a significant potential for Ireland in developing a long-term sustainable economic growth model in the future. In , weekly earnings in industry were the third highest of all private sectors in Ireland and carried a premium of 33 percent on average private sector earnings.
Beyond the above reasons, there are two basic arguments as to why the latest manufacturing trends are encouraging in the context of sustainable economic development. The first one is a push-factor, driving Ireland in the direction of the new manufacturing.
Worldwide, we are witnessing a new trend in manufacturing. In the commoditised manufacturing geared toward mass-market supply, global supply chains continue to drive down margins and costs, necessitating ever-increasing degree of automation and labour cost reductions. This trend covers a wide range of goods, such as generic consumer goods and intermediate goods production, ranging from textiles and clothing, to consumer electronics, and basic materials industries. Here, robots are increasingly displacing workers. For example, the McKinsey Global Institute study published this month projects that by up to 25 percent of the tasks performed by industrial workers in developed countries and up to 15 percent in developing countries will be at a risk of replacement by automated systems.
Actual production in these sectors is based on high precision and skills flexibility and these drivers are pushing for on-shoring of these sectors to the economies with requisite skills and talent infrastructure. The examples of such manufacturing sub-sectors are also numerous, spanning customised precision equipment manufacturing, professional equipment design and production, medical devices, customised medical equipment, individualised or specialist medicines, technology-intensive and complex machinery, but also high value-added consumer goods.
Ireland has some limited experience in this area, with companies such as Mincon and Mainstay Medical, Outsource Technical Concepts and others. And we are witnessing growth in design-rich consumer goods areas, such as homewares, personal accessories and higher value-added foods.
The second factor is the pull-factor of the opportunities presented by new manufacturing. The crucial point for Ireland is that this trend offers smaller economies a comparative advantage over larger manufacturing centres, as long as the smaller economies can create, attract, retain and enable core human capital. The competitive advantage of skills-intensive manufacturing is anchored to traditions of high quality specialist production in the country, and to the innovative and entrepreneurial capacity of the economies.
In fact, our immediate neighbours industrial policy platform is now firmly focused on enhancing the connection between industrial design, consumer innovation and manufacturing. To deliver on this potential, our industrial policy needs to be enhanced further to stimulate growth in entrepreneurship in manufacturing. Skills training in manufacturing should be boosted via a targeted apprenticeship programme that develops key expertise and provides support for training both in Ireland and abroad.
Our supports for development of manufacturing clusters in traditional industries need to become more pro-active, providing shared sales and marketing platforms for smaller producers. We can start by consolidating various promotional agencies under the cover of Enterprise Ireland in order to reduce trade and investment facilitation bureaucracy, while increasing resources available on the ground in the foreign markets. The overall thrust of reforms should be on reducing duplication and complexity of the system. Recent report by the Entrepreneurship Forum, published earlier this month outlined a number of measures aimed at helping the unemployed and underemployed to transition into entrepreneurship.
These include reducing the eligibility period for the Back to Work Enterprise allowances and creating an entrepreneurship internship programmes. Beyond this, focused incubation and co-working centres targeting manufacturing entrepreneurs can help develop new capabilities and generate new startups. Aligning these programmes with vertical market access accelerators set up in key cities can help enhancing growth potential of indigenous high value-added entrepreneurship.
The above programmes can also stimulate inflow of key talent into the country from abroad, including entrepreneurial talent.